84. Harumaine

Several days had passed since the deployment of the Thunderstrike Squadron. Over twenty ships now encircled Earth. Since even destroyers could be easily observed from the surface, inquiries from various nations regarding this development were reportedly reaching the Japanese Government. These inquiries, in turn, were being routed through Ichijō’s oversight of the seventh tier—though no reply could be given, not even a plausible one, such as “this is a precautionary deployment of spacecraft in anticipation of full-scale nuclear war.” As a result, the Japanese Government had received no response from our side. All nations would likely interpret this silence as some kind of signal from Agirakana.

There was no noticeable movement at the naval bases scattered along the coast of continental China, but reports from Ain indicated frantic activity among ground forces responsible for capital air defense, and a widespread, intense mobilization of military units across the domestic territory.

From Ichijō, it was reported that the data handed over recently had been passed to the appropriate agencies of the United States. Details remain unclear, but Ain has relayed that there’s been an unusual, large-scale personnel reshuffle across major media outlets and news organizations—seasonally inappropriate, to say the least.

By the time one notices, the protest group in front of the Embassy has vanished. Whether the political sphere will undergo similar restructuring remains to be seen. As for me—no way am I doing that handshake again.

“Captain, intelligence from the probes deployed within the Alze Empire indicates an imminent uprising in the empire’s frontier region—the Halmaine system, recently annexed by Alze, is expected to erupt within days.”

Maria arrived to report this, and the news carries an unsettling weight.

“An uprising?”

"There have been signs of unrest before, but it seems they’ve decided to act after witnessing a string of imperial missteps. Up until now, Alze has poured considerable capital into reviving Halmaine from the chaos of annexation, so launching large-scale orbital attacks that would destroy planetary environments appears unlikely. A ground assault via infantry deployment seems inevitable. Therefore, both sides are expected to suffer significant losses, including personnel casualties."

"A protracted, ground-level quagmire. And we Agirakana are, in part, responsible for that."

"I believe so."

"Still, I’d rather not get involved in domestic affairs."

"Captain. There appear to be several habitable planets near the Halmaine system. Past attempts at colonization were abandoned due to longstanding tensions between Halmaine and the Alze Empire."

“Hm? Maria, what’re you getting at?”

“Perhaps we should intervene in this conflict and negotiate the transfer of those habitable planets from the Alze Empire?”

“Why bother?”

“Frankly, I’m concerned that expanding the settlement program to include non-Japanese might destabilize things considerably.”

“Even now, tensions are as thick as during the Cold War—understandable, really.”

“So, what if we redirect all non-Japanese settlers to those planets instead?”

“Not a bad idea—but aren’t there other habitable worlds out there we could use?”

"Yes. We haven’t pursued active surveys in that direction until now, but following the recent immigration incident, we conducted immediate investigations and have identified numerous planets potentially suitable for settlement. As I mentioned earlier, all of them are fairly distant—meaning that if left isolated, civilizations there would likely decline. If Agirakana continues to maintain involvement with those planets, there’s no issue. But if not, it would be safer to settle near other human-type civilizations that have already reached a certain level of development."

"Hmm. That’s true. As long as I remain Agirakana’s fleet commander, it’ll be fine. But I’d prefer not to burden Agirakana indefinitely after I’m gone."

"Not a precise simulation, but assuming no intervention, a colony of roughly one hundred million Earth humans—excluding Japanese—would likely revert to a primitive state within three hundred years. If the colony exceeds two hundred million, internal conflicts such as civil wars tend to emerge early, drastically shortening the time until reversion."

"Primitive humans. Once they’ve reverted, does civilization ever come back?"

"It depends on factors like subsurface resource availability and climate conditions. But once the population drops below thirty million, the likelihood of internal conflict plummets sharply. Civilization could potentially revive within a few centuries, or at worst a few millennia."

"Is this something I should be deciding on my own?"

"The captain has no obligation to Earth—yet they still feel gratitude for extending a lifeline to a human civilization on the brink of certain extinction. Even now, three torpedo squadrons are stationed in Earth's upper atmosphere, preventing a full-scale nuclear war."

"True enough. Whether one can truly claim no obligation to Earth is debatable. Fine—let’s think of a way to satisfy both the Alze Empire and the rebel faction. Can you estimate the final damage each side would suffer from a ground campaign?"

"Exact precision is limited by insufficient data, but a rough approximation is possible."

"Then please. Let’s examine the results and see if we can find a way forward."

"Understood."

...

"Captain, I’ve completed a preliminary simulation."

"Let me see it."

"The current total population across the three planets within the system experiencing this rebellion is 9.5 billion. By the time the conflict concludes in one year, the population will have dropped to 2.5 billion. The rebel faction's loss of tangible assets amounts to 85 percent of their total—primarily due to the use of planetary destruction weapons on two of the planets."

"Are we switching from ground combat to orbital attacks?"

"Appears they’ve abandoned early capital preservation, opting instead to target morale by striking the least populated planet first with planetary destruction weapons—intending to turn the tide of ground combat swiftly. The outcome, however, was ironically the opposite: rebel morale rose, and combat intensified. The next planet fell to the same weapon, and with it, the rebels’ defeat—bringing the conflict to an end."

We ran around a thousand simulations, gradually adjusting conditions, and while the duration of the conflict and the scale of damage fluctuated slightly, the overall results remained largely unchanged. The Arze Empire suffered approximately sixty thousand casualties—combined deaths and injuries among local police and ground forces.

The surrounding star systems, already destabilized by the rebellion and secessionist unrest, regained a temporary calm following the end of the conflict due to the use of the planetary destruction weapon. However, the underlying instability remained unresolved, meaning new unrest could still emerge—though we did not simulate that scenario further.

"Even from the Arze side alone, the casualties are staggering—far beyond what one would expect from a modern conflict. We’ll use this as leverage in negotiations. If it fails, well, we were already in a bad spot to begin with.

Maria, if we relay this information to the other side, do you think the simulation outcomes would shift? What do you think?"

"The captain’s intention to negotiate with the Alze side upon receiving this information was anticipated, so we’ve run simulations accordingly. The results show a slight reduction in Alze-side casualties, though casualties on the insurgent side remain virtually unchanged."

"What if Agirakana intervenes in the conflict in some form?"

"Scenario one: Agirakana securing Halmaine through guaranteed occupation. In this case, Halmaine suffers minor casualties—negligible in scale."

"Scenario two: Naval blockade and show-of-force involving the capture of ships within the system. Under this approach, Halmaine’s civilian population experiences only minor inconveniences, and the conflict could be resolved—though prolonged escalation remains a possibility."

Pattern three is a combination of one and two. It appears to be the most effective and reliable. Regarding demonstration maneuvers, the most certain approach would be for Agirakana itself to relocate to the Halmaine system and conduct the maneuver directly, though operating at the fleet level would also be acceptable.

"Ah, I see. Understood. Assuming the next contact point is Admiral Marco of Alze, is it feasible to transfer the simulation parameters and results data?"

The recipient’s terminal has a built-in memory unit, so transmitting the data should pose no issues.

Understood. Once you've prepared on your end, summon Admiral Marco.

Understood. …,

Captain, readiness confirmed. Then I’ll initiate the call."